National meteorological and hydrological services can contribute to the delivery of key global agendas by
developing impact-based forecasting. Impact-based forecasting provides the information needed to act before disasters to minimise the socio-economic costs of weather and climate hazards. Organisations and individuals can make critical decisions to ensure that resources and supplies are in place to take early action and to respond as soon as it is safe to do so. Impact-based forecasting is one of the crucial elements of the Red Cross Red Crescent Forecast-based Financing systems.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) actively encourages impact-based forecasting as a mechanism to deliver aspects of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Sustainable Development Agenda, and the aims of the Risk informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) and the Anticipation Hub.

The guide “The Future of Forecasts: Impact-based Forecasting for Early Action” provides a step by step guide for national meteorological and hydrological services and partner organisations interested in developing impact-based forecasts and warnings. The guide builds on best practice from a user and producer perspective and offer guidelines set out by the WMO and leading impact-based forecasting practitioners and it builds on and is aligned with the WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services and the Red Cross Red Crescent Forecast based Financing Manual – Trigger methodology.

Download: The Future of Forecasts: Impact-based Forecasting for Early Action

Publication date: 01/09/2020

Document status: Final

Future of Forecasts - Impact-based forecasting for EA

Document data

National Societies
Disaster risk reduction, Resilience
Document type